AI’s "Free Software" Boom Just Showed How the Bubble Dies

The only AI booms I want to hear about are the data centers going up in smoke 😂🎉

Now that all these expensive software companies are speedrunning enshitification, their value proposition disappears. Businesses pay for MS Office because they want reliability, security patches, and someone to contact when there’s a problem. If there’s no one accountable at Microsoft for Word or Excel issues and everyone just gets sent to a chatbot loop, might as well look elsewhere.

Simple explanation: the stock market is grossly inflated relative to real value, and AI debt is increasingly risky and unlikely to return the promised IOU.

Adobe shares are down maybe in part to AI but mostly due to them just straight up being evil.

The AI bubble is bursting, and the Insurance companies are the canary in the coal mine.

“Why Free Never Wins” … the simple answer: 'cause “Free” doesn't have a huge marketing budget.

An equally interesting case study would be RedHat Linux. A company built a multi-billion dollar business providing the SAME free software that anyone could get for free. Not one dollar came from software license. It all came from certainty, support, ecosystem, and expertise. To the point where they owned 40%+ of the enterprise/business linux market.

RedHat Linux is an equally interesting case study. A company built a multibillion-dollar business by offering the same free software that anyone could obtain for free. Not one dollar came from a software license. It all stemmed from certainty, support, ecosystem, and expertise. They eventually dominated the enterprise/business linux market, accounting for more than 40%.

I'm a graphic designer and illustrator, and I've barely used Adobe software in my 30+ year career. I have used Photoshop, mostly for image editting and some photo enhancement. For the most part I use Xara Designer Pro which is a lot like Illustrator, only cheaper and not as capable, but it's capable enough to do everything I need. I've created over 2700 published artistic maps created for the game industry, and almost entirely using Xara Designer Pro. I have some hand-drawn work, that I created hand-drawn/digital hybrids, and now I do fully 3D maps, but the bulk created was using Xara exclusively.

Ich glaube bei Libre-Office ist es etwas anders. Libre wird wohl in den nächsten Jahren einen Boom zumindest in Europa und Asien erleben. Hier als Stichwort: "Unabhängigkeit und Sicherheit gegenüber den Vereinigten Staaten."

Since Adobe got arrogant I have been using GIMP instead. A slightly different workflow, but I see no noticeable difference in the result.

2:49 there's also a fee for cancelling a free trial.

I wouldn't put Adobe's products and MS Office in the same bucket. Photoshop has a real feature advantage over Gimp, but Office's advantage is not inherent. It's a typical vendor lock-in and just as Windows is failing in the OS market (both desktop and overall), there will be a rapid deflation for Office products as well. To put in another way, libreoffice (or google docs) does 99% of what most regular people want for home usage, exept opening Word and Excel files created MS Office. (Quick sidenote: just as the online versions of Word, PowerPoint and Excell, cannot render these files the exact same way.)

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the numbers for office are drastically inflated because of enterprise requirements and it being the default on oem images. a common requirement for software for companies is to have active support. that's just not something that you get with free/open source. it's not just about the cost of the app

I think some of the arguments about free software not being popular were a bit misplaced. It can be everything from now knowing an alternative exists to not supporting cloud features natively, to inertia or tie ins with other products, services etc. But in fairness, a lot of it also does come down to 'trust' that someone is holding your back in case the software goes sideways.I have been using more and more open source alternatives for software over the last decade and they are almost never simple 'click and go' experiences. But they are not promised to be and neither do people generally have the impression they will be that way. It's a complex web tbh.

Sure free software has always been available, but in most cases a software company that charges for their software can offer a better solution which people are willing to pay a one time amount to OWN the product. Now that 1) You don't own the product 2) The monthly subscription is always increasing 3) Independent developers with the help of agents can match the big dev shops in quality, things will change fast and if companies like Adobe aren't having emergency meetings right now, they damn well should be.

There is free , not free (someone else pays) , and not free( I have to pay).

He is not "one developer" working in a basement - he has a team, a startup, and presumably some VC backing. It is still very impressive though. But don't fall for the "American hero" projected image, please.

I think I know why you look forward to the AI bubble popping. After that happens the hype will be gone, the useless companies will die or pivot and people will have a more sensible view of what "AI" is actually good for.